Quick answer
To project funnel revenue from your own assumptions, write down a number for each step: traffic, the conversion rate at each box, price, fees and costs, plus retention and churn for subscriptions. Multiply down the funnel to get leads, sales and revenue, then subtract costs for profit and ROI. Use real figures from past campaigns where you have them and label the rest as guesses. Run a cautious, middle and hopeful version, and plan around the cautious one. A projection checks whether a plan can work; it never predicts that it will.
Key takeaways
- A projection is arithmetic on your assumptions, not a forecast
- You need traffic, conversion, price, fees and costs at minimum
- Use your own past data first and label every guess
- Multiply step by step down the funnel, then subtract costs
- Always run three scenarios and plan around the cautious one
- Find the one assumption that changes the result most, and test it first
- Compare the projection to real results as soon as you have them
📘 Main article: This guide supports Scale.gg FunnelMapper: Map and Test Your Funnel Before You Build It. There we show how the FunnelMapper simulator flows your numbers through a funnel map. This guide explains how to choose those numbers honestly and read what comes out.
A funnel map tells you whether the route makes sense. Numbers tell you whether the plan makes sense: whether the traffic you can afford, at the conversion you can realistically expect, covers what you will spend. Without them, a funnel can look perfect and still lose money on every visitor.
This guide answers one question: how do you project funnel revenue from your own assumptions without fooling yourself? It pairs with our main article, Scale.gg FunnelMapper: Map and Test Your Funnel Before You Build It, and our FunnelMapper video on the Prodify Digital channel.
What is a funnel projection?
A funnel projection runs your assumed numbers through each step of the funnel to show what the plan implies. If you assume a number of visitors and a conversion rate at each step, the projection tells you how many leads, sales, revenue, costs and profit those assumptions add up to.
As shown in our FunnelMapper video, the simulator there is deterministic: it does not guess with AI or pull live analytics. That makes the logic easy to follow. It also means the result is only as realistic as what you type in.
Which assumptions do you need?
At minimum: traffic, conversion at each step, price, fees and costs. These match the inputs listed in our FunnelMapper video.
| Assumption | Question to answer |
|---|---|
| Traffic | How many people will enter from each source in the period? |
| Conversion | What share move from each box to the next? |
| Price | What does each offer cost the buyer? |
| Fees | What do payment processors or platforms take from each sale? |
| Costs | What will you spend on ads, tools, freelancers or affiliate commission? |
| Retention and churn | For subscriptions, how many stay each month and how many cancel? |
Where do honest starting numbers come from?
Your own past results beat anyone else’s averages. Use this order of preference:
- Your own data from a similar campaign, page or email
- A small real test, such as a short ad run or one email to part of your list
- Platform figures you can see, such as your current email open and click rates
- Published benchmarks, treated with caution because they rarely match your audience
- Pure guesses, clearly labelled as guesses
⚠️ Warning: Be wary of conversion rates quoted in sales pages, webinars or course promotions. They are often best cases. If a number came from someone selling something, mark it as a seller claim and use a lower figure in your cautious scenario.
If you are testing an affiliate offer, our guide How to Test an Affiliate Offer Before You Scale Promotion shows how to collect real numbers on a small budget before you commit.
How do you run the numbers step by step?
Multiply down the funnel, then subtract costs. Here is a worked illustration with made-up round numbers. They show how the maths flows and are not a target or a typical result.
| Step | Illustration |
|---|---|
| Visitors to opt-in page | 1,000 |
| Opt-in conversion 30% | 300 leads |
| Leads who buy the £20 product, 4% | 12 sales |
| Revenue | 12 × £20 = £240 |
| Payment fees, say 3% | about £7 |
| Ad spend for 1,000 visitors | £300 |
| Profit | £240 − £7 − £300 = about −£67 |
In this illustration the plan loses money. That is exactly what a projection is for: you found out on paper. Now you can ask which lever is most realistic to change: cheaper traffic, a better opt-in page, a stronger offer, an upsell or follow-up emails that convert more of the 288 who did not buy.
💡 Tip: Add one improvement at a time and rerun the numbers. If only a dramatic jump in conversion makes the plan profitable, the plan is fragile.
Why should you run three scenarios?
Because a single number hides how uncertain it is. Run the same map three times:
| Scenario | How to set it |
|---|---|
| Cautious | Roughly half your expected conversion rates, full costs |
| Middle | Your honest best estimate |
| Hopeful | What happens if things go well, for reference only |
Plan your budget around the cautious version. If the cautious version is a loss you can afford while you learn, the risk is manageable. If it would hurt, start smaller.
How do you read the result without fooling yourself?
Look for the assumption that matters most, not the profit figure. Change each input by the same amount and see which one moves profit most. That is the assumption to test first in real life.
- Treat the output as a range, from cautious to hopeful, never a single promise
- Write down where each number came from, so you can update it later
- Compare with real results after the first week or first few hundred visitors
- Update the map with real figures and rerun it before you spend more
Our sibling guide How to Map a Sales Funnel Before You Build It, Step by Step covers building the map these numbers sit on. If you keep notes on what you test, Keep an Email Experiment Log You Can Actually Learn From shows a simple format.
Want the full picture? Read Scale.gg FunnelMapper: Map and Test Your Funnel Before You Build It, and see our Starter Bonus Bundle for Scale.gg.
Frequently asked questions
Is a funnel projection the same as a forecast?
No. A projection shows what your assumptions add up to. A forecast claims what will happen. Treat projections as a planning check.
What conversion rate should I assume?
Use your own past data first. If you have none, run a small real test, and use a cautious figure until you do.
How do I calculate funnel ROI?
Take profit (revenue minus fees and costs), divide it by costs and multiply by 100 for a percentage.
Does Scale.gg FunnelMapper predict revenue?
No. Our video says its maths is deterministic and uses only the assumptions you enter, with no AI guessing or live analytics. See our FunnelMapper article.
When should I update my projection?
As soon as you have real numbers from the first visitors or emails, and before you increase spend.
The bottom line
Projecting funnel revenue from your own assumptions is simple arithmetic with an honesty test attached. List traffic, conversion, price, fees and costs, multiply down the funnel, run cautious, middle and hopeful versions, and plan around the cautious one. Then replace guesses with real numbers as soon as you have them.
Related posts
- Scale.gg FunnelMapper: Map and Test Your Funnel Before You Build It
- How to Map a Sales Funnel Before You Build It, Step by Step
- How to Test an Affiliate Offer Before You Scale Promotion
[…] That is normal. Once the map looks like this, you are ready to add numbers, which our sibling guide How to Project Funnel Revenue From Your Own Assumptions […]